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| CAFR1 NATIONAL
POST That foreboding word is deflation. Copied below is the CAFR1 Market Rants of 10/03/14 which notes the deflation aspect of what appears to be the force overhanging the markets. The dollar index projections noted are generally in line and stand. The silver notes were off per the extent of the push to the downside. On silver it appears the DEC SILVER contract may breach tonight the lows set previously last night and I am looking at two prices to be a buyer. The first buy price is more of a day-trade at $14.960 looking to cover at $15.22 and stand back to see the forces at play. So far the forces at play have been persistent exerting downward pressure basically in line with inverse moves to the dollar index. If that holds true, I am looking at bottom picking tonight or early in the morning. I would imagine there are many players that bought much higher who are under pressure to liquidate their futures positions in silver and gold. With that in mind, and the nature of the commercials / fund managers to squeeze blood from a rock, what is called a blow-off may be in line for the setting of the lows and possibly the bottom price for the year. That second trade I am looking to do, and will be standing back to see if it happens is a slide down to between $14.73 to $14.615 and if that happens I will be taking a long term position with an initial upside target of $20.000 come December and then $24.500 come February 2015. After, and if that happens I will re-evaluate at that time. Walter Burien - CAFR1.com - Prior CTA 1978 to 1992 COPY OF 10/03/14 CAFR1 MARKET RANTS POST IS AS FOLLOWS:
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| MARKET RANTS - CAFR1 10/03/14 I have not put out a Market Rants Post for over a year. Today though I see a reason to do so. US Dollar Index - WEEKLY CHART 5-YEARS and MONTHLY CHART 25-YEARS SILVER - WEEKLY CHART 5-YEARS and MONTHLY CHART 25-YEARS As of this writing the US Dollar index is at 96.825 and Silver at 16.815 First and foremost, the Dollar index over the last several years appeared to be held by the Feds at the 82.50 mark. If it went below, intervention brought it back. If it went above, Fed intervention backed off and it returned to that level. Well, in the last few weeks the Dollar index has been picking up steam as can be seen by the current price. Precious metals in the US are priced in Dollars so as the dollar goes up, the price of metals is pressured to go down. You could have metals in another country stay the same but in the US go down being priced in Dollars which are going up. So, the big question is "What is going to happen and what is going on?" When the Dollar is low, business activity is strong regarding international trade. US goods are cheaper to foreigners with a cheaper Dollar. The opposite is true with a stronger higher priced Dollar. So what are the Feds doing here? Allowing the Dollar to push higher and higher creates a word to many businesses that causes a cringe, that word is Deflation. So why are the Feds pushing at this time for Deflation? Business cycles are looked at in long term parameters. It is a chess game of motive and motivation. If the International community looks at the Dollar as heading to new high territory, and the trend is for it to continue to do so, they will not back off from buying US goods that they need. In fact they will increase their orders and then back off. This has a positive effect on the economy (if foriegn purchases back off, here the opposite is true). Additionally, the higher Dollar has the effect of bringing down prices in the US, Crude Oil, agricultural, precious metals, price of foriegn imports, etc.. or in other words: Deflation. Government's intent here? Well, they want to maintain the value of their multitrillion Dollar holdings and see a good rate of return on their investments. Looked at on a global perspective per investments in the US, real estate values increase (even though they may go down slightly); stock market is attractive motivated to maintain its value priced in Dollars, inflation is stymied with a higher Dollar. Overall another word comes into play, "stability". Here is what I think the Feds are going for. If deflation accomplishes that purpose, then motive and intent is answered. The 10-year high level in the Dollar index was at the 91.0 to 92.5 range. I don't think it will pass that mark in the next four years. Reaching 88.0 to 90.0 in the short run, that appears to be a strong probability. Again, this is a chess game. Next 30-day top? I would put it at 88.50 to 88.80 and the backing off to 86.00 to 85.00 What effect will this have on Silver? Well, when Silver was in the $30 range and I was asked higher or lower, I would say higher BUT, if the commercial boys wanted to push it lower the target mark I would look for to be an aggressive buyer was $16.85 per oz. (most that I told that to at the time probably thought to themselves what is he smoking, it will never get down there). I have learned to pick points after asking myself: Where would they push it to if the commercials and money manager boys wanted to screw everybody? The $16.85 mark was hit a few days ago and breached today with a $16.64 low set early in the morning. In the time it took to write this article, as of 8:45 AM AZ TIME it is at $16.90 Per Silver, I stand with the $16.85 mark being a good price for buyers who have bought looking to hold and "if" $15.55 was hit with the commercials and fund mangers putting the squeeze on, that price I refer to as the "Mortgage the farm price" as a buy. Sent FYI from, Walter Burien - CAFR1 - Prior CTA 1978 to 1992 |
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Walter welcomes you to CAFR1.com – To view this informative and impressive web site, click here.
BIO of: Walter Burien HERE.
[ CAFR1 Note 03/02/14 TX pulled the links to the "Detailed" Cash Report shortly after this CAFR1 Article. People were looking - https://fmx.cpa.state.tx.us/fm/pubs/cashrpt/07/html/index.php ]
_______________________________________CAFR1 Note 03/02/14 - Thank God for: Archive.org the 2002 to 2005 TX State Cash Report, a snap shot was taken and the report can be viewed and "SAVED" from the following links:
TX CASH Report Archives:
2001 DETAILED LISTING - https://web.archive.org/web/20051029005544/http://www.window.state.tx.us/fm/pubs/cashrpt/01/
- 2005 Texas Annual Cash Report (PDF 7 MB)
- 2004 Texas Annual Cash Report (PDF 20 MB)
- 2003 Texas Annual Cash Report (PDF 13 MB)
- 2002 Texas Annual Cash Report (PDF 21 MB)
- 2001 Texas Annual Cash Report
If access to the links above are busy, try back again latter. Now known, many will be looking and that will strain Archive.org's bandwidth. Two of the "Detailed" reports I have now archived on the CAFR1 Download directory also at - http://CAFR1.com/STATES/TEXAS/CashReports/Archive/_______________________________________A little (much) digging may be necessary to see the same in other states.
I make one very important note here: State funds are strictly "State Funds". All other local governments within the state have their own separate investment funds and fund balances whereby if all local government fund balances were looked at from within a state, the collective totals from local governments from within the state would dwarf the state government's collective totals.
So, we all see how several state governments are playing out their "budget short fall game", now it is up to the people to decide if they are tired of the entertainment presented at their expense of promoted shortfalls and budget deficit soundbites rammed down their throats by a bunch of spoiled, ruthless, yuppies operating from within the halls of government, pockets bloated with hundred dollar bills (with most of the top orchestrator's being attorneys), or shall the people muster to break through and break free from the orchestrated soundbites that are designed to maintain the cash flow and wealth base of others operating from the inside, or must the people force a showing of the collective wealth held by government and then the application of option "E" to solve any immediate fiscal problems standing....
And one very IMPORTANT note; The CA article copied below mentions paying "Proposition 108 bonds", a debt investment instrument. It is VERY important to see who the investors are in that, and all other bond debt standing for all local governments. For decades local governments have been promoting debt at the front door and funding the same debt using their own investment funds through the back door. With them doing so it served a two fold purpose. It locked in an investment for the same local governments to stash their cash, and it allowed for promotion of the debt whereby they could justify by false promotions tax increases to pay the debt, a debt that was in reality a tool used by them to create investment vehicles to funnel their ever growing massive take of revenue (productivity value) from the people.
So the bottom line per debt as disclosed here is: What percentage of any local government's debt is actually funded in a round about way with the same local government's investment funds? Is it 50%, 70%, 80%, or maybe even 100%???? Every taxpayer BETTER and should know the answer to that question.... The Foxes are not going to tell you or make it easy for you to find out.
TWO EXAMPLES OF ROUND ABOUT SELF DEBT FUNDING: 1.] City X has $100,000,000 in bond debt that was funded by (Bank, Insurance, Investment Company) X. The same City X has $100,000,000 invested with Company X. 2.] State X has $10,000,000,000 invested with the local government investment pool and the local government investment pool is funding $10,000,000,000 of State X's bond debt. The mix and cross play here is mind boggling but in end result, the largest proportion of local government debt is funded with their own investment funds....
OPTION "E" - Make it happen in your state!
Walter - CAFR1.com
A great video, view HERE.
“There is massive fraud on the public by the institutions we thought we could trust.
Virtually every public entity is involved in hoarding and diverting public resources from public service to insider crony benefit and misuse.
This video explains why this is not only going on, but considered essential by the elite who want to keep you on a treadmill for their enrichment.
The message underlying this video is, demand an independent audit of the accounts (CAFR) of your city, county and state governments, school districts, courthouses, every public agency.
And most important, KEEP WHAT YOU EARN. – FIND A WAY.”
Find out more HERE.
Let your governors and legislators know…that we know!
| From: | "Dick Fojut" |
| Subject: | Congress Should Veto Obama's War By Patrick J. Buchanan |
| Date: | Wed, August 28, 2013 7:30 am |
| To: | "Rush Limbaugh", "Walter Burien" |
2003 Lies from Bush, Cheney, Israel, McCain and our Media
about non-existant weapons led us to destroy and occupy innocent Iraq!
2013 Lies from Obama, Israel, McCain and our Media
about poison gas in Syria are leading us to destroy another innocent country!
Now read Pat Buchanan's opinion...
Congress Should Veto Obama's War
By Patrick J. Buchanan
Tuesday - August 27, 2013
"Congress doesn't have a whole lot of core responsibilities," said Barack Obama last week in an astonishing remark.
For in the Constitution, Congress appears as the first branch of government. And among its enumerated powers are the power to tax, coin money, create courts, provide for the common defense, raise and support an army, maintain a navy and declare war.
But, then, perhaps Obama's contempt is justified.
For consider Congress' broad assent to news that Obama has decided to attack Syria, a nation that has not attacked us and against which Congress has never authorized a war.
Why is Obama making plans to launch cruise missiles on Syria?
According to a "senior administration official ... who insisted on anonymity," President Bashar al-Assad used chemical weapons on his own people last week in the two-year-old Syrian civil war.
But who deputized the United States to walk the streets of the world pistol-whipping bad actors. Where does our imperial president come off drawing "red lines" and ordering nations not to cross them?
Neither the Security Council nor Congress nor NATO nor the Arab League has authorized war on Syria.
Who made Barack Obama the Wyatt Earp of the Global Village?
Moreover, where is the evidence that WMDs were used and that it had to be Assad who ordered them? Such an attack makes no sense.
Firing a few shells of gas at Syrian civilians was not going to advance Assad's cause but, rather, was certain to bring universal condemnation on his regime and deal cards to the War Party which wants a U.S. war on Syria as the back door to war on Iran.
Why did the United States so swiftly dismiss Assad's offer to have U.N. inspectors -- already in Damascus investigating old charges he or the rebels used poison gas -- go to the site of the latest incident?
Do we not want to know the truth?
Are we fearful the facts may turn out, as did the facts on the ground in Iraq, to contradict our latest claims about WMDs? Are we afraid that it was rebel elements or rogue Syrian soldiers who fired the gas shells to stampede us into fighting this war?
With U.S. ships moving toward Syria's coast and the McCainiacs assuring us we can smash Syria from offshore without serious injury to ourselves, why has Congress not come back to debate war?
Lest we forget, Ronald Reagan was sold the same bill of goods the War Party is selling today -- that we can intervene decisively in a Mideast civil war at little or no cost to ourselves.
Reagan listened and ordered our Marines into the middle of Lebanon's civil war.
And he was there when they brought home the 241 dead from the Beirut barracks and our dead diplomats from the Beirut embassy.
The only thing we learn from history is that we do not learn from history. Congress should cut short its five-week vacation, come back, debate and decide by recorded vote whether Obama can take us into yet another Middle East war.
The questions to which Congress needs answers:
- Do we have incontrovertible proof that Bashar Assad ordered chemical weapons be used on his own people? And if he did not, who did?
- What kind of reprisals might we expect if we launch cruise missiles at Syria, which is allied with Hezbollah and Iran?
- If we attack, and Syria or its allies attack U.S. military or diplomatic missions in the Middle East or here in the United States, are we prepared for the wider war we will have started?
- Assuming Syria responds with a counterstrike, how far are we prepared to go up the escalator to regional war? If we intervene, are we prepared for the possible defeat of the side we have chosen, which would then be seen as a strategic defeat for the United States?
- If stung and bleeding from retaliation, are we prepared to go all the way, boots on the ground, to bring down Assad? Are we prepared to occupy Syria to prevent its falling to the Al-Nusra Front, which it may if Assad falls and we do not intervene?
The basic question that needs to be asked about this horrific attack on civilians, which appears to be gas related, is: Cui bono?
To whose benefit would the use of nerve gas on Syrian women and children redound? Certainly not Assad's, as we can see from the furor and threats against him that the use of gas has produced.
The sole beneficiary of this apparent use of poison gas against civilians in rebel-held territory appears to be the rebels, who have long sought to have us come in and fight their war.
Perhaps Congress cannot defund Obamacare. But at least they can come back to Washington and tell Obama, sinking poll numbers aside, he has no authority to drag us into another war. His Libyan adventure, which gave us the Benghazi massacre and cover-up, was his last hurrah as war president.
SOURCE: http://buchanan.org/blog/congress-veto-obamas-war-5773
Comment by amanda
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