Rufe's Weather Outlook Update

 

 12/22/13  6:30AM
 The freezing line is draped along the NH border, then cuts due east from Lebanon to Portland then hugs the coast down east to Port Clyde. It will not retreat appreciably today as hoped. However, rain showers will be very light south of Fryeburg, Lewiston to Rockland. Therefore less than 1/10” additional ice will accrete south of that zone and north of Portland –Lebanon. 

 Heavier icing will continue north through Lovell, Turner, Augusta to Belfast, up to an additional 1/3”. Along and north of Route 2 the heaviest icing will continue this morning, easing after 10AM yet not ending altogether until after dusk. Expect another 1/2” -2/3” ice today. North of Eustis to Dover-Foxcroft less than an additional 1/2” of ice is likely as more snow/sleet will blend, another 2”-4” through the day. As intoned for days, only a few tens of miles north to south will show marked differences in amounts and type of precipitation.  Please refer to new graphic for details.

 River flooding now appears unlikely as heavier precipitation will fall in the frozen form. Winds are not an issue. Thawing temps will finally arrive for nearly all Monday morning. At this time another dose of rain will overspread the state, most along the coast. At Coburn’s Gore to Greenville a light mix of snow/sleet/freezing rain will launch, blending to light snow. This demarcation will settle south after dusk Monday night, ending a snow for all, a coating to 2”, most north. A hard freeze will set in Monday night, persisting through at least Christmas.

Rufe's Weather Outlook Update: Word is that this storm could be as bad as (or worse than) the Ice Storm of ’98. Lets hope not…..

Weather Update

12/20/13  6:30AM

 First minor rain/snowfall:
 Snow will develop Rangeley to Lincoln shortly with several inches by dusk. Light rain will blossom a bit later throughout the remainder of the service area; freezing for a few hours north of Fryeburg to Newport amounting to 1/10” if that. Winds will be light. Precipitation will wane at night as the freezing line settles south. 

 The Main Event:
 The rain begins in earnest between 2-4PM tomorrow, the freezing line draped from Fryeburg, Auburn to Bucksport, icing north of that. Snow will fall Rangeley north. The freezing line will settle south to Lebanon, and Route One by dawn Sunday, to slowly retreat north during the day. The heaviest precipitation will occur 6AM -2PM, ending by midnight Sunday. Expect 1.2”-1.7” melted water equivalent, most north. If all ice, very serious: more sleet north, and more liquid south. The zone throughout the western interior to Bangor is very much threatened. The ice/snow demarcation will be situated from Jackman to Lincoln. 6”-12” of wet snow/sleet is likely in that corridor. Extensive icing is likely farther south to Fryeburg to Augusta to Bucksport, potential of 1/2” to 1”. Up to one half inch of ice is possible farther south to the Sebago Basin, Auburn and Camden. The coast will be spared. River flooding possible if ice jams form.

 Fortunately the inversion will be deep, preventing northerly gusts from exceeding 20 mph inland. Thawing temps for all but the far north will be followed by a hard freeze Monday night through at least Christmas. 

 With such a tight thermal gradient there is much leeway for error.
 The rest of New England will receive significant rain, no wind.

 

Rufe's Weather Outlook: Major pattern shift underway. Storm 2013 this weekend

 Major pattern shift underway, jet stream lifting north, introducing warmer storms. 

 Pulse #1:
 Snow will develop north Friday, several inches likely. Showers will for over much of the service area; only interior valleys collecting a bit of ice in the morning, less than 1/10” if that. Winds will be light. 

 Pulse #2:
 Rain returns Saturday with a period of light icing throughout the interior valleys, up to 1/10”. Extensive sleet then freezing rain appears likely along and north of a line from Bethel to Farmington to Newport. Perhaps one half inch will accrete. Again winds will be light.

 Pulse #3:
 After a lull a major storm tracks across northern Maine Sunday. Prior to dawn rain will blossom with sub freezing temps throughout all of the interior. Thawing will be slow to progress north. Therefore extensive icing is possible north of Fryeburg to Augusta to Bucksport, only snow Jackman and Lincoln north. One half to 2/3” accretions are possible. Precipitation will ease around midnight. Fortunately the inversion should be rather deep, preventing northerly gusts from exceeding 20 mph in the icy belt. 

 Please keep in mind that this event is still several days away and the alignment of the front will be critical. 

Further adjustments are likely. 

 The remainder of New England will receive rain, no concerns.

Rufe's Weather Outlook Update

 Weather Update

 A very active pattern right through the weekend.

 Light snow will spill across the SW corner of Maine around 3PM reaching the northern fringes of the service by 8PM. The first inch will accumulate 2-3 hours later. The snow will be fluffy, minimal adhesion to limbs and power lines. Snow will exit westernmost Maine by 6AM Tuesday, the Penobscot Bay region by 10AM. Amounts will range from 2”-4” far north to 7”-9” around Penobscot Bay. Graphic is attached. Gusts will not exceed 35 mph at the coast and 28 mph through dawn tomorrow. Gusty NW winds will buffet the entire service area during the day, 33-38 mph.

 

 Light snow will yield to rain along the coast Friday, light snow continuing inland. Pockets of freezing rain are possible from the Sebago Basin south with less than 1/5” ice. Wind not a concern.

 

 Freezing rain will resume Saturday morning over all but the immediate coast, the thawing line edging north to Route 2 to Bucksport by dusk then halting. Farther north will be the region of multiday icing. If this scenario plays out ice accretions will range from ½” to 1”, the worst case scenario. The snow/ice demarcation will settle south from midday Monday and beyond, with the coast receiving over 1.4” of rain. 

 The inversion should be rather deep, preventing northerly gusts from exceeding 20 mph in the icy belt. Please keep in mind that this event is nearly a week away: MUCH latitude still exists for modification.

 

 

 

 

 

Rufe's Weather Outlook

 Stiff winds today and high impact snowstorm over the weekend.

 An arctic front will generate morning flurries over the hills and mountains while kicking up gusty west and northwest winds. Expect gusts to 35 mph system wide between 11AM and 3PM. 

 The current signature for the weekend storm is strongly pointing to a purely snow event: a rarity. There is only a remote possibility of sleet Sunday morning across southern York County, and that should not have a great impact. Snow will begin 10PM Saturday in Kittery reaching the northern fringes of the service area by 1AM Sunday. The heaviest snow will fall around 5AM Sunday. The last inch will fall by 4PM south, 7PM north. The snow will be fluffy, with little adhesion to limbs or power lines.

 Expect 6”-8” far north to 10”-15” far south.
 Northeast winds will be brisk and may gust to 35 mph within 20-30 miles of the coast early Sunday morning. It is questionable as to how resilient the inversion will be. 

There is a low threat of gusts to 40 mph within 10-15 miles of the coast which would cause much blowing and drifting, blizzard conditions with white-outs. That is the only wild card.

Rufe's Extended Outlook

Extended Outlook

Today:  quiet. Light snow north @ night. Highs 5-24 N/S.

Friday;  windy. Flurries north. Lows 2-12 N/S. highs 14-29 N/S.

Saturday; quiet, snow at night. Lows 9 below -8 N/S. highs 6-23 N/S.

Sunday; snow ending, windy. Lows 0-18 N/S. highs 16-30 N/S.

Monday; quiet and dry. Lows 9-25 N/S. highs 10-25 N/S.

Tuesday; light snow. Quiet. Lows 3-13 N/S. highs 23-37 N/S.

Wednesday; breezy and dry. Lows 17-26 N/S. highs 27-36 N/S.

Rufe's Extended Outlook‏

Extended Outlook

Today:  snow, rain, ice. Plz see discussion. Highs 29-39 N/S.

Tuesday; quiet. Flurries coast?  Lows 20-30 N/S. highs 26-37 N/S.

Wednesday; mtn. flurries. Breezy. Lows 8-19 N/S. highs 19-33 N/S.

Thursday: quiet  and dry. Lows 5 below to 14 N/S. Highs 5-23 N/S.

Friday;  quiet. Flurries north. Lows 8 below-10 N/S. highs 10-28 N/S.

Saturday; quiet, flurries late. Lows 5-19 N/S. highs 22-37 N/S.

Sunday; windy. Mnt. Flurries. Lows lows 11-25 N/S. highs 16-30 N/S.

Rufe's Weather Outlook Update: A challenging storm with varied precipitation

 A challenging storm with varied precipitation. This morning’s dusting is unrelated to the main event.

 

 Snow will overspread the south border around 10PM with little if accumulation. Snow will press north during the night, blending with sleet/freezing rain the liquid rain by dawn all the way to the north border. 

 

The western border from Fryeburg-Greenville-Coburn’s Gore stands the greatest likelihood of up to ¼” accretion. Snowfall amounts will range from a scant coating at the coast to 3”-5” over the mountains prior to heavy rain which may approach 2” total throughout the service area. The heaviest precipitation will occur between 3AM and noon tomorrow, ending 4PM to 9PM south to northeast.

 

 SE winds from 3PM through 8PM within 5-15 miles of the coast may reach 40-45 mph, greatest threat east of Casco Bay. Winds slacken thereafter as the storm passes just to the west of Maine.

 Southwest then northwest winds behind the storm tomorrow night will ramp up after midnight and likely exceed 40 mph system wide from perhaps dawn through dusk. There is the threat of gusts to 50 mph for several daylight hours Thursday. Another fairly long duration event.

Rufe's Extended Weather Outlook

Extended Outlook

 

Today:  dry. breezy east during am. highs 20-31 N/S.

 

Tuesday; quiet and dry. Lows 15-23 N/S. highs 32-42 N/S.

 

Wednesday; rain, snow,wind. See discussion. Lows 27-39 N/S. highs 45-50.

 

Thursday; mnt. Flurries. Very windy. Lows 19-28 N/S. highs 21-32 N/S.

 

Friday;  quiet and dry. Lows 7-17 N/S. highs 21-33 N/S.

 

Saturday; quiet and dry. Lows 9-18 N/S. highs 26-35 N/S.

 

Sunday; quiet and dry. Lows 16-26 N/S. highs 30-40 N/S.

Rufe's Weather Outlook

Extended Outlook

Today:  quiet and dry. Highs 39-48 N/S.

Friday;  showers, flurries north. quiet. Lows 22-30 N/S. highs 33-46 N/S.

Saturday; breezy and dry. Mtn. flurries. Lows 23-32 N/S. highs 34-47 N/S.

Sunday; windy, flurries . Lows 13-21 N/S. highs 21-32 N/S.

Monday; breezy and dry. Lows 10-17 N/S. highs 25-39 N/S.

Tuesday; quiet. Isolated flurries. Lows 14-21 N/S. highs 30-40 N/S.

Wednesday; breezy and dry. Lows 19-28 N/S. highs 30-42 N/S.

Rufe's Weather Outlook

Extended Outlook

Today:  windswept showers sweep east early. See discussion. Highs 50-60 N/S.

Tuesday; breezy and dry. Lows 26-34 N/S. highs 35-44 N/S.

Wednesday; quiet and dry. Lows 19-28 N/S. highs 32-41 N/S.

Thursday: quiet and dry. Lows 18-25 N/S. highs 40-48 N/S.

Friday;  showers, quiet. Lows 26-34 N/S. highs 40-50 N/S.

Saturday; quiet. Few showers/flurries. Lows 29-36 N/S. highs 38-47 N/S.

Sunday; windy, flurries north. Lows 23-30 N/S. highs 28-36 N/S.

Rufe's Extended Weather Outlook

Extended Outlook

Today:  quiet and dry. highs 40-49 N/S.

Friday;  quiet and dry. Lows 25-30. Highs 44-54 N/S, cooler coast.

Saturday; quiet and dry. Lows 31-36. Highs 42-52 N/S, cooler coast.

Sunday; quiet. Showers late. Lows 32-37. highs 45-54 N/S,cooler coast.

Monday; breezy, foggy, showers. Lows 41-49 N/S. highs 49-59 N/S.

Tuesday; breezy and dry. Lows 29-37 N/S. highs 35-47 N/S.

Wednesday; quiet and dry. Lows 19-28 N/S. highs 32-41 N/S.

Rufe's Weather Outlook

Extended Outlook

Today:  breezy, showers. Mtn. flurries late. Highs 50-59 N/S.

Friday;  windy and dry. Lows 26-34 N/S. Highs 40-47 N/S.

Saturday; quiet and dry. Snow north @ nite. Lows 23-29 N/S. highs 38-47 N/S.

Sunday; am showers south, flurries north. Lows 29-36 N/S. highs 41-51 N/S.

Monday; windy, mnt. Snow squalls. Lows 28-34 N/S. highs 35-48 N/S.

Tuesday; dry and quiet. Lows 19-27 N/S. highs 31-42 N/S.

Wednesday; quiet and dry. Lows 19-27 N/S. highs 35-43 N/S.

Rufe's Weather Outlook

Extended Outlook

Tuesday; quiet and dry. Lows 17-27 N/S. highs 48-55 N/S, cooler coast.

Wednesday; quiet and dry. Lows 26-35 N/S. highs 51-60 N/S, cooler coast.

Thursday; windy with showers. Lows 43-48. Highs 58-65 N/S, cooler coast.

Friday;  windy, mtn. flurries. Low s38-43. Highs 42-50 N/S.

Saturday; quiet and dry. Lows 24-33 N/S. highs 45-51 N/S.

Sunday; showers south, flurries north. Lows 30-36 N/S. highs 44-51 N/S.

Rufe's Extended Weather Outlook

Extended Outlook

Today:  rain late. Breezy at night. See discussion. highs 48-58 N/S.

Friday;  am rain, thunder? Very windy. Lows 47-56 N/S. highs 62-70 N/S.

Saturday; quiet. Showers north late. Lows 42-47 N/S. highs 52-60 N/S.

Sunday; showers south, flurries north. Breezy. Lows 31-41 N/S. highs 38-48 N/S.

Monday; quiet and dry. Lows 20-28 N/S. highs 36-44 N/S.

Tuesday; quiet and dry. Lows 22-29 N/S. highs 43-52 N/S.

Wednesday; quiet. Showers north. Lows 34-40 N/S. highs 49-59 N/S.

Rufe's Extended Weather Outlook

Extended Outlook

Today:  windy. See discussion. Showers/flurries north. highs 43-54 N/S.

Tuesday; quiet and dry. Lows 22-30 N/S. highs 38-48 N/S.

Wednesday; quiet and dry.  lows 23-31 N/S. Highs 43-52 N/S.

Thursday; breezy pm, rain late. Lows 27-35 N/S. highs 47-56 N/S.

Friday;  am rain, breezy. Lows 46-52 N/S. highs 56-65 N/S.

Saturday; quiet and dry. Lows 42-48 N/S. highs 50-58 N/S.

Sunday; am showers. Breezy pm. Lows 34-41 N/S. highs 42-51 N/S.

Rufe's Weather Outlook

Extended Outlook

Today:  quiet: am showers end west to east. Highs 60-69 N/S.

Friday;  am rain ends early. Quiet. Lows 46-54 N/S. Highs 59-68 N/S.

Saturday; quiet and dry. Lows 40-45. Highs 56-63 N/S.

Sunday; quiet. Showers north. Lows 41-46. Highs 54-61 N/S. 

Monday; breezy and dry. Lows 33-40 N/S. highs 46-56 N/S.

Tuesday; flurries north, showers south. Quiet. Lows 34-42 N/S. highs 44-52 N/S.

Wednesday; quiet and dry. Lows 33-42 N/S. highs 47-54 N/S.

Extended Weather Outlook

Extended Outlook

Friday;  quiet. Am showers far south? Lows 42-50. highs 65-70, cooler coast.

Saturday; quiet and dry. Lows 41-48 N/S. highs 59-66 N/S, cooler coast.

Sunday; quiet and dry. Lows 38-47 N/S. highs 60-65, cooler coast.

Monday; quiet. Showers north late? Lows 42-49 N/S. highs 61-66.

Tuesday; quiet and dry. Lows 43-48. Highs 61-66, cooler coast.

Wednesday; quiet. Showers north? Lows 43-48. Highs 60-69 N/S, cooler coast.

Thanks 'Rufe'

Extended Weather Outlook October 7th to the 13th

Extended Outlook

Today:  showers, isolated thunder, see discussion. Highs 63-71 N/S, cooler coast.

Tuesday; quiet and dry. Lows 45-50. Highs 55-67 N/S.

Wednesday; quiet and dry. Lows 35-43 N/S. Highs 62-72 N/S, cooler coast.

Thursday; quiet and dry. Lows 40-45. Highs 66-74 N/S, cooler coast.

Friday;  quiet. Showers far south? Lows 45-54 N/S. highs 64-69.

Saturday; quiet and dry. Lows 40-48 N/S. highs 55-66 N/S, cooler coast.

Sunday; quiet and dry. Lows 38-45 N/S. highs 58-65 N/S, cooler coast.

Thanks 'Rufe'

Extended Weather Outlook

Extended Outlook

Today:  breezy north and dry. Highs 66-77 north to south.

Friday;  quiet and dry. Lows 45-50. Highs 65-73 N/S, cooler coast.

Saturday; quiet. Isolated showers. Lows 45-52 N/S. Highs 63-70 N/S, cooler coast.

Sunday; foggy with showers. Low 47-52. Highs 58-69 N/S, cooler coast.

Monday; rain develops, heavy at night? Lows 53-58. Highs 63-70 N/S.

Tuesday; am rain, breezy coast? Lows 50-55. Highs 60-68 N/S.

Wednesday; quiet and dry. Lows 44-49. Highs 58-67 N/S.

Thanks 'Rufe'