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Thursday, March 12, 2015

MARKET RANTS of: 02/27/15 - Gold; Silver; Dollar Index; US30 Bonds; DOW‏



CAFR1 MARKET RANTS POST OF 02/27/15 - The FOCUS basics followed by THE MARKETS:

Ever hear of the expression: "Not being able to see the forest through the trees"?

Over the last 20-years I have learned the #1 aspect of what moves the market and who makes those moves.

It is never discussed or mentioned due to the obvious reality of the situation "if" comprehended by the players.

So a total vacuum and void in the public's mind is created and stringently maintained by the PTB (Powers That Be) due to the massive wealth, consistent profit, and control involved. 

The forest that the population can not see through the trees is:

The primary "owner" of the markets both domestic and international is now Collective Government.

In the US there are over 184,000 local government operations and several thousand Federal. Each with their own investment portfolios and all networked as one through several private associations. Collectively they "own" the market place, insurance industries, banking, mortgage, etc., through investment ownership. When there assets are networked in or out, short or long by the private associations that consult and indirectly direct those funds, they MAKE the moves in the market. Fast, slow, contrarily to all fundamentals, with the bottom line being they in doing so "liquidate" every one else of their assets and wealth. Tens if not hundreds of billions of dollars monthly depending on circumstances an volatility. 

They have it down to a fine art of movement; volume; and pressure points for liquidation or motivating over-extension of the public players.

I have spent 20-years looking at the collective totals of collective government local and federal. Government goes far out of their way to make sure the population never caches on the the reality of what is taking place right in front of their faces. A blackout of a cognitive though is maintained by government through their efforts exherted in the syndicated media, controlled education, political parties, etc... for not a peep, mention, or word that would trigger cognitive thinking of this issue. Government, little by little over the years TOOK IT ALL OVER BY INVESTMENT.

So, with the before-mentioned stated, when trading any market, it is very important to ask yourself: What trap are they creating to liquidate everyone else of their wealth and at the same time enhance their own balance sheets?

The majority of People have very short term memories. Those that do remember, will remember the many times that if when the stock market; gold; crude oil etc., was promoted as the sky is the limit or it is collapsing and will continue to collapse, the exact opposite happened each time over the last several decades. What the government institutional fund managers do, as they are being networked by the government gang's established private associations is to in so many words: School the minnows from one end of the pond to the other as the sharks (Government institutional fund managers) feast.

They make more money short selling at critical moments then can possibly be imagined (09/2001 and 03/2008). At the end of 2001 about 4 to 6 trillion was sucked out of the world market place on those massive pr-played shorts and in 2008 with an across the board short play established (except on US Treasuries and the Dollar where they took long positions) about 32 to 35 trillion was sucked out of the Global market place and into their covertly held balance sheets.

People are not to bright at times and in 2008 one side of the coin was promoted to the population, the losses. Well, not a peep as to the other side of the coin, the massive profits on those pr-played short positions as almost all sectors and commodities collapsed primarily over a 0ne and a half month time period. The world exchanges clear "every derivative transaction" and for every $1 lost in one account a $1 credit is made to another account. So in 2008 when trillions were evaporated from many accounts, who primarily got the corresponding credit? ANSWER: Institutional Government investment accounts, most of which were covertly held scattered across the globe.

Bottom line? If you want to catch some of the big moves consistently in the market place, throw the above into your thinking to determine what the play of the day, week, month, or year is designed by the institutional government fund management teams to catch everyone else in the wrong direction! Cross reference what is being promoted and what actually happens. It is very important to ask yourself the following question: OK, now that I have determined the perfect point to enter based on what is promoted and what I am currently seeing, where could they push it to if they wanted to screw everybody?

You will realize after you make that adjustment, you will hit the mark almost every single time as to being short or long one of the primary markets due to the one reality of: The sharks are out to screw everybody and do so more consistently than not.. They chum the waters, school the minnows, promote the minnows involvement, and then feast on the minnows at the side of the pond they directed them to be at in the first place.

If you want to get an idea of the Scope and Size of investment portfolios of local governments in the US, I have compiled just a few (about 4200) local government AFRs Annual Financial Reports here -   Local governments put one word, Comprehensive, at the beginning of their AFR to make it called a CAFR and by the way started the CAFR accounting structure in 1946 and it became the standard in 1977. Gee, I wonder why they never told you or the rest of the population about it for 65-years? Go figure..


Gold and Silver?
Looks like both are getting ready for a big push to the upside after the last few months of short clips on the downside orchestrated by the institutional managed funds. Also the Chinese as of this week are back after their recent New Year's celebration. The Chinese being one of the biggest players and growing evermore as time goes by have been working on a Global trading currency other than the Yuan that is ready for launch (when launched it will have a several year strong impact on the precious metals market). Their new global "for trade" currency they will be putting forth will be gold backed. Also, during their one-week business shut-down for the New Years celebration, there was a noticeable change in an old and well established tradition in China that takes place over the New Year's celebration. That tradition is the giving of the famous "Red envelope" to friends and family, young and old. The Red Envelope usually would contain currency, the Yuan, noted to bring good fortune and prosperity to the recipient. Well, this year many of those Red envelopes contained not currency but Gold and Silver coins by the 10th of an ounce to to several ounces contained therein. Totals between a billion or so Chinese? Let's just say you would be figuring in the tons collectively. The Chinese government also a little over two-years ago promoted to their population (edict given) that Gold and Silver should be collected and held as a status of wealth obtained. So the Chinese New Years celebration has ended this week and a billion or so Chinese are back to business as usual with a sparkle in their eye very eager to be buyers taking advantage of the dip in gold and silver that took place while they were on holiday. In the last two days there has been a serious battle taking place between the buyers and sellers.

Now the institutional fund manager that have had an easy time of quickly clipping the price of gold and silver over the last year liquidating much wealth from the buyers are not going to have such an easy time continuing their normal bait you in and chop your you know what off. As of the end of this week they have China and the rest of Asia to contend with (creating more buyers than sellers) and are faced with a double whammy. The second aspect the institutional fund management sellers will be dealing with is a normal re-tracement from recent contract highs (about 96.50) made in the Dollar Index. In the short run the dollar index backing off to 90.00 to 91.00 should be a normal re-tracement in my opinion. The effect of both factors come mid-March on Gold and Silver? In my guesstimate prices could reach $1,350 Gold and $19.25 Silver (many from Asia and the mid-East are looking for $27.50 Silver in less than 5 months), or possibly higher.

Crude Oil?
Well the play there by the institutional government fund managers on the downside for the last several months was a push from $100 a barrel to recently down to $45.00 a barrel. Currently as of the close this week it is at about $49 a barrel. The push on the downside was intentionally done to try and kick-start several economies around the globe (especially the US) that were floundering. It had a negative effect on the oil companies (and Government physical investments in the same, even though they probably made a killing on short crude oil derivatives) but the drop in prices was quite a perk to everyone else. What the writing on the wall tells me is that crude oil prices will be held between a range of $44 to $58 per barrel until there is clear evidence the economy is strengthening, or as it looks now, the time for that to come into play being five to eight months from now. 

US30 Bonds?
Here as we all have seen, the play was over the last several years to run US30 Bonds up through contract highs and then new contract highs over and over again. (high priced US30 Bonds means very low interest rates). Again, this was done to stabilize the economy and as all of those traders that shorted the Bonds over the last eight-years found out, to liquidate them of their wealth as US30 Bonds contrary to the fundamentals of the past  (interest rates going up and US30 Bonds down when money gets tight) kept breaking new highs and then another new high time and time again that created a virtual miniscule interest rate yield on those bonds. Bottom line there was; the Government Institutional Fund managers could move the market where they wished, for the purpose they wished, within the time parameters they wished, and they did so. The big question on everyone's mind that trades US30 Bonds and other interest vehicles over the last two years is, was, and has been: When will the 1st increase of interest rates take place? Keep in mind that the 1st indication; announcement; projected plan stated by the Fed will have a massive visceral reaction from the market place as everyone moves to position themselves shorting US30 Bonds and other interest vehicles for the impending / imminent rise in rates. That factor of a massive visceral reaction coming from the world markets scares the hell out of the Fed and US Government administration. So how will it be done? Well, they already are doing it covertly. US30 Bonds recently topped out (me says the top is finally in) at 171.04 (02/02/15) and then hit 158.26 (02/16/15) two weeks latter.

As of the close this week the US30 Bonds were at 161.27. What has become apparent to me is that the Fed will run the price of US30 Bonds down over the next several months to the 125.00 to 118.00 level "without" making any announcement as to a policy change. Maybe a word here or there as to potential of a change. Then once the US30 Bonds reach the level they would have shot to in the blink of an eye "if" a policy change announcement was made now, when those pricing levels are hit ten-months to a year from now, THEN they will make the announcement of a rate increase. Here in that fashion they will get an orderly sell-off over the next year period and in fact when they make the announcement of the 1st rate increase, interest rate vehicles will take a quick plummet and then just as quick pop back up over the pricing they were at when they made the announcement.  So, for those that trade the US30 Bonds and other interest rate vehicles, the above analogy should give you a pretty clear path to follow if you agree. 

DOW? Simple one to me there. Local and Federal Government since 2008 wishes and has the intent to maintain and increase their ledger values relative to the holdings they contain. I have told many over the last three-years due to that reason (and the political impact it will have) to; Look for the News Headlines in mid 2015 to read "DOW breaks the 20,000 level!"

The above is my personal opinion of the writing on the wall.

This CAFR1 Market Rants post is being passed on to you FYI from,

Walter Burien - CAFR1

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